PhD Thesis Proposal - Public Lecture -Da Zhong (Dexen) Xi

Title: Dependent Models for the Duration and Size of BC Fires

Abstract:
Understanding the complex relationship between the duration and size of forest fires is important in order to better predict these important characteristics of fires for fire management purposes. Describing this relationship is also important for our fundamental understanding of fire science. Here we develop and utilize novel techniques for characterizing the distribution of multiple outcomes related to a specific event in the fire science context. In this context, we jointly model time spent (duration) in days and area burned (size) in hectares from ground attack to final control of a fire as a bivariate survival outcome using two broad frameworks: a copula model framework that connects the two outcomes functionally, and a joint modeling framework that connects the two outcomes with a shared random effect. We compare these two frameworks in terms of their utility and predictive power. We also consider how longitudinal environmental variables (e.g. precipitation, drought indices) are best incorporated in this context, and challenges related to the complexity of computation associated with the analysis of two outcomes considered jointly. A key aspect of the project is knowledge translation through collaboration with fire scientists at the federal government to implement the optimal framework developed in this thesis as a component in the fire prediction system that is concurrently under development by Natural Resources Canada.

Supervisor: Charmaine B. Dean