Applied Math Colloquium Talk - Dr. Xiunan Wang

Title: A malaria transmission model with temperature-dependent incubation period

Speaker: Dr. Xiunan Wang
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario

Abstract: Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and is transmitted among humans by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Climate factors have significant impact on both mosquito life cycle and parasite development. To consider the temperature sensitivity of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of malaria parasites, we formulate a delay differential equations model with a periodic time delay. We derive the basic reproduction ratio R0 and establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics in terms of R0, that is, the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if R01. Numerically, we parameterize the model with data from Maputo Province, Mozambique and simulate the long term behaviour of solutions. The simulation result is consistent with the obtained analytic result.
In addition, we find that using the time-averaged EIP may underestimate  the basic reproduction ratio. This talk is based on a joint work with Prof. Xiao-Qiang Zhao.