Tuesday, March 21, 2017
Spencer Engineering Building (SEB)
M. Reza Najafi is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Western University. He has developed/improved statistical and physically-based frameworks to solve critical water resources problems at the regional and global scales. His research works have been publications in high-profile journals such as Nature Climate Change, Water Resources Research, and Journal of Hydrology among others. He received the 2017 Best Technical Paper Award for his publication: “Ensemble Combination of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts” in ASCE’s Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. Najafi’s main interests are hydroclimatic extremes, detection and attribution, climate change impact, uncertainty assessment, multi-modelling, and hydrologic forecasting.
Do we need to consider nonstationarity in the design, planning, and management of civil infrastructure?
Analysis, design, and management of civil infrastructure require accurate estimation of hydroclimatic extremes including floods and droughts. Changes in the magnitude and frequency of the observed extremes are evident in many regions in Canada and around the globe which may threaten existing infrastructure and challenge future designs. Therefore, it is crucial to understand whether these changes are due to natural climate variability or they are part of a long term and possibly irreversible trend. This presentation will investigate the effects of climate change on the hydrologic cycle at the large scales of the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic and the regional domains of western North America. It discusses how climate change can affect flooding and cause water shortages. Analyses are based on a suite of observations including ground-based, satellite and reanalyses as well as simulations provided by global/regional climate models. Possible contributions from anthropogenic (such as increases in greenhouse gas concentrations) and natural (such as variability in solar radiation) external forcing factors to the observed trends in hydroclimate variables, and their future impacts will be discussed.
Civil & Environmental Engineering